The national 10% tax on sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) in Mexico is projected to have a substantial impact on the burden of diabetes, cardiovascular diseases, and mortality over the next 10 years, according to a modeling study published in PLOS Medicine. The study, conducted by Kirsten Bibbins-Domingo of the University of California San Francisco, and colleagues, indicates that 983 million international dollars in healthcare costs may be saved from the prevention of diabetes cases alone.
In this study, the researchers developed a Mexico version of an established model of cardiovascular disease in the US and used survey data on household consumption in Mexico since the tax implementation to project health and healthcare cost impact in the next 10 years. The researchers found that the 10% tax will likely prevent approximately 189,300 new cases of type 2 diabetes, 20,400 incident strokes and heart attacks, and 18,900 deaths over 10 years among adults 35-94 years of age, and is expected to result in 983 million dollars in savings for healthcare costs due to prevention of diabetes cases.
“The SSB tax may be an important component in a multifaceted strategy by the Mexican government to curb the obesity and diabetes epidemic in Mexico,” said the study’s author.
The conclusions are limited by the assumptions in the model, and some epidemiologic parameters were drawn from populations outside Mexico. However, the findings suggest that, if consumption trends continue, the tax may confer significant benefits to people living in Mexico.
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